The World becomes a Variety of Different Economic Powers

It was an illusion to think that Western society would become the world's prototype for economic systems and society models. John Gray, British political philosopher, author and Professor of European Thought at the London School of Economics, calls himself a realist. "American power is shrinking and other communities like China, India and Russia, will get great influence in the world." He was a guest speaker at Tomorrow's World, a program of de Baak. Margot Zoeteman, Program Director at de Baak, talks to John Gray about his strong views on shifting powers.

By Petra Baars and Marleen Bijleveld

Margot Zoeteman: "The more international we become, the more we travel across borders. We come across the unexpected, which can be scary, surprising and more. If you would take us - managers, leaders, and professionals - on an expedition around the world, where would you lead us? Which latest developments would you present to us?" John Gray: "The single most important economic development that affects managers and leaders is the shift of the centre of gravity in business activity, including investment, to Asia and away from Europe and America. Look at the enormous Middle Eastern investments of the Gulf States in Asia, particularly India and China, and other parts of the world like Brazil. It is irreversible and will bring about a very different climate for managers; contacts will no longer be as familiar as they were between Europe and America. And it is broader than that. Even within China many people have different histories, religions, societies, economic and law systems."

American capitalism will never be the single model
John Gray continues: "After the Cold War, only 20 years ago, there was this belief about capitalism being the single model for the whole world. America's way of capitalism has been missionary, promoting its ideas, values and economic system around the world. However, the opposite is happening. Types of capitalism different from the American model, despite certain similarities, are advancing quickly. In China this is occurring through manufacturing and in India through the service industry. The Russian economy is different; although growing, it is still quite small. But Russia uses its great energy wealth to play itself back into the centre of world politics." Gray warns for the tendency to think that these changes are temporary. "There is this vague idea that when people get richer they want more freedom, and become more bourgeois. But this argument has no foundation. I don't think these countries will become more like the West. China will not enlist a structure of Western style law and India, a democracy, will not abandon its traditional religion."

Shift from welcoming to fearful
So, these countries might become as successful as us, or even more successful, without becoming like us. What will be the consequence of that? John Gray: "It makes us less important in the world. The rapid shrinkage of American power, accelerated by the unsuccessful Iraq war, reduces this even more. First we welcomed the new economic powers, but now, when we realise that they will not become like us, we fear the Chinese. Especially Americans want anti-China protections. This is unlikely because America is very dependent on China. And of course China is a strong, oppressive, ruthless state which faces big problems in the environmental sphere. But that will not slow down its economic growth and power. And you could look at it in a different way; its current authoritarian regime is less oppressive then Mao's and evidently more economically flourishing."

Empires collapse
I'm not suggesting America is going to vanish. It's too successful, too legitimate and strongly supported by American people. But it could shrink much more quickly than people might think. The dollar might crash; especially when other parts of the world are losing faith in American leadership, which is seen as irrational or deluded. Europe is in a way more used to shifting world powers. In 1939 the British Empire was at its maximum, covering a quarter of the world. Twenty years later it was almost gone. History teaches us that once the balance has shifted, it normally doesn't shift back for hundreds of years. Europe doesn't actually have much power nowadays. It is just a pleasant, rich and peaceful place to live. I see a future situation in which there is no centre anymore, just a variety of different powers, amongst which America is a significant one."

Broaden your perspective, use the internet
Managers need to accommodate themselves to new ways of thinking, according to John Gray. "The main focus is to have a broader historical viewpoint. We can all make our short-term mistakes, but there are long-term pressures as well. I travel a lot in Europe and sometimes Asia and America. It broadens your perspective when you meet people face to face. But the internet really presents great opportunities; you have free access to translated newspapers: Russian, Arabic, Asian, Indian, Singaporean or Taiwanese. It's a great advance of our time, but not used enough. People cling onto the things they know and like, even though it's more useful to look into the things you don't know . By reading these foreign newspapers you get a different picture of the world. You'll see perspectives and even facts that you won't find in your own European commentaries. Whether they're right or wrong, these sources are very valuable."